After attempting to increase tensions with the West and in the region by conducting Naval exercises and making bellicose threats to close the Straight of Hormuz, Iran has now offered to reengage the international community in negotiations over its nuclear program. Entering negotiations would not only be ineffective in addressing Iran’s nuclear ambitions, but also play into Tehran’s hands.
Some view this latest offer as the result of effective international sanctions that shaped Iran’s behavior and forced them to the table. Based on news reports, existing sanctions seem to have the desired effect on the Iranian economy, and the threat of an oil embargo and financial sanctions by Europe and the US will further hurt the Iranian economy. However, this offer should be considered a shrewd political maneuver to create a patina of compromise and cooperation as the regime enters what may prove to be a very dangerous few months.
In March, Iran will hold its first country wide elections since the 2009 Presidential election and the subsequent crackdown. The first anniversary of the Arab Spring and likely ongoing violence in Syria will serve as a backdrop to an election process that will omit dissenting voices, and be anything but free, fair and open. The world will watch those elections closely, and Tehran is preparing to manage the global reaction to any political dissent and subsequent violence.
Iran likely calculates that the existence of negotiations with the West will free their hands to respond more forcefully and decisively to any unrest. In the past, Western governments have demonstrated an unwillingness to pursue sanctions or meaningful responses to even unconnected Iranian behavior when nuclear deal making is afoot. The 2009 crackdown after the Iranian Presidential election is a case in point. The Obama Administration remained quiet in the face of regime violence largely to avoid angering Tehran in the slim hope that engagement could settle the nuclear issue.
Regardless of Iran’s true intentions, one thing is clear; they are not yet prepared to seriously negotiate over their nuclear program. Their statement underscores this point by declaring the absence of “preconditions from the Iranian side”. In diplomatic terms this cuts both ways, and announces Iranian unwillingness to accept any preconditions proposed by the West; preconditions such as ceasing enrichment activities. If Iran were seriously intent on reaching an agreement, then preconditions, particularly those targeted on the fuel cycle, would not be so jealously guarded and declared from the outset.
The result is negotiations that would stop the imposition of new and more effective sanctions, undermine a meaningful response to a likely regime crackdown against domestic political dissent, all the while achieving no agreement that would slow or stop Iran’s nuclear program. This would be a blow to the United States’ ability to lead effective and decisive international actions to achieve either regime change or eliminate the Iran nuclear program.
REFS:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle-east/report-iran-to-propose-new-round-of-nuclear-talks-with-six-world-powers/2011/12/31/gIQANOIxRP_story.html
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/01/world/middleeast/iran-asks-to-resume-talks-on-its-nuclear-program.html
No comments:
Post a Comment