Matthew Koenig wrote a compelling article in Foreign Affairs outlining the arguments in favor of military action against the
Iran nuclear program. He restates a valid argument that has been clear to many
Iran watchers for quite some time. However, his comments regarding the underground enrichment facility near
Qom got my attention. He states that this facility ‘represents a more challenging target’ because it is built into a mountain, and well defended against attack. Despite this, he argues that the
US does not need to destroy it in order to achieve the purposes of significantly retarding
Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons. He reaches this conclusion based on the current presumption that the
Qom facility “contains little nuclear material” and, therefore, does not yet represent a significant facility.
More to the point, the Wall Street Journal on Friday reported the Pentagon’s acknowledgment of this shortcoming of U.S. ordinance against heavily fortified underground facilities. Meanwhile, Iran announced in early January that enrichment activities had commenced at the Qom facility, which has a reported capacity of 3,000 centrifuges – or enough to produce material for 1 to 2 nuclear weapons per year.
Collectively, these reported facts indicate that Iran is entering (or very close to entering) a window of time when it can enrich uranium and advance its pursuit of nuclear weapons while the U.S. cannot meaningfully threaten or undertake effective military action to stop it. Ineffective U.S. policy, and an unwillingness by political leadership to make difficult decisions, has led us to this extremely dangerous period.
REFS:
Matthew Koenig wrote a compelling article in Foreign Affairs outlining the arguments in favor of military action against the 
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